Plan your marine operations with accurate weather downtime estimations

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Plan Your Marine Operations with Accurate Weather Downtime Estimations

When planning a marine operation, downtime due to adverse weather conditions is a critical factor that needs to be taken into account. Operations such as oil exploration, wind turbine installations, and marine construction projects are all subject to delays or interruptions due to inclement weather.  

Estimations are crucial for offshore operations

estimation for offshore operations are crucial

Estimations play a critical role in offshore operations as they provide the basis for decision-making related to various activities such as project planning, cost estimation, risk assessment, and resource allocation. Accurate estimations of parameters such as weather conditions, sea state, and equipment performance are essential for ensuring the safety, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of offshore operations 

For instance, estimations of wind speeds and wave heights are necessary for determining the optimal time for vessel operations and equipment installation. Similarly, estimated expenses are crucial for ensuring project feasibility and profitability. Therefore, offshore operators need to invest in reliable estimation methods and tools to minimize risks and maximize returns on investment. 

Impact of weather on offshore operations

The impact of weather on offshore operations can be significant, and it is a critical factor that offshore operators must consider in their operational plan and execution processes. Weather conditions such as strong winds, high waves, and severe storms can cause delays, damage to equipment, and even endanger the crew. 

These adverse weather conditions can result in downtime, which is very expensive for offshore projects. Moreover, weather patterns can be unpredictable, and make it challenging to plan for offshore projects accurately. Therefore, it is essential for offshore operators to carefully monitor weather hindcasts, use reliable metocean data, and take necessary precautions to ensure the safety of their personnel and the success of their offshore projects. 

Interesting to know that the impact can vary based on the specific offshore areas: 

In the Oil & Gas exploration and production industry, extreme weather conditions pose a significant challenge for access to platforms, which can cause production delays. Additionally, harsh weather conditions such as storms can also result in damage to facilities and equipment, leading to further complications. 

Similarly, in the wind turbine installation and maintenance industry, offshore wind turbines may become unsafe to work on depending on weather conditions. The installation vessels also face difficulties in accessing turbine sites, which can hinder the installation and maintenance process. 

In the subsea cable laying and maintenance industry, rough seas can cause cable-lying vessels to drift off course, leading to cable damage or misalignment. The installation and maintenance of subsea cables also become complicated due to the presence of strong currents. 

offshore operations can be impacted by the weather

The advanced weather downtime feature – within Metocean Analytics by Sinay

What does the advanced weather downtime feature do?

The advanced weather downtime tool is a sophisticated software program designed to help offshore operators and marine contractors anticipate and plan for weather-related downtime during offshore operations.

It works by analyzing historical weather data over 40 years and simulating the weather conditions for a given time and location to predict the likelihood of weather-related delays or interruptions.

Based on these simulations, the tool estimates the extended duration of marine operations, accounting for weather downtime. By using this tool, offshore operators and contractors can better plan their operations and allocate resources, reducing the risk of project delays and cost overruns. Overall, the advanced weather downtime feature is an essential asset for improving the efficiency and safety of offshore operations, as it helps mitigate the impact of unpredictable weather conditions on these complex projects.

How does the advanced weather downtime feature work?

The tool is available on the Metocean Analytics platform. To use the tool, users need to input their operational plan into the platform, including the location of the operation, the type of marine operation, and the duration of the operation.

The platform simulates thousands of operations and calculates weather hindcasts without the need of going to sea for each of them. Once this is complete, it produces an archive containing Excel (.xlsx) files that provide information about the non-exceedance probabilities of given workability conditions and detailed extended durations of the operation, as a whole, and step by step.

The computation is lightning-fast, taking only a few seconds to a few minutes, depending on the operation complexity and server load.

exemple of the metocean analytics platform with an overview of metocean conditions

Operation Planning

An operation planning is organized as follows:

An activity is defined by a name, a minimum duration, a contingency time, several repetitions, whether or not the activity is continuous with the previous one, and a limiting environment.

A limiting environment is a set of metocean parameters with associated limits.

The operation planning is given in an Excel (.xlsx) file. The template provided should be used as a reference for the Environments table and the Tasks table, although they can be displaced to other sheets or other coordinates. It is possible to add columns and lines to the Environments table and to add lines to the Tasks table.

Apart from the two tables, the program will not look for any other information. Excel formulae can be present in the input file; only the values are used by the program.

Environments Table

The Environments table defines limiting environments. For the program to understand it correctly, the user needs to follow the instructions given in the table.

A header row: The first cell, “Environment #,” then each cell gives the name of a metocean parameter. There are conventions for these names, for the program to recognize which metocean parameter is required.

The program interprets the cell containing the word “wave” as the significant wave height (m) unless it is followed by “mean direction” or “direction”, in which case it interprets it as its mean direction (° from) or its maximum direction (° from), respectively. If neither of these conditions is met, it is interpreted as the significant height(m).

The program interprets the cell containing “hs” or “hm0” as the significant wave height (m), “dp” as the peak direction (° from), “dir” as the average direction (° from), and “tp” as the peak period (s).

The program interprets the cell containing the word “wind” as hourly wind speed at 10 meters (m/s) unless it is followed by “direction,” in which case it interprets it as hourly wind direction at 10 meters (° coming from).

Results

Once the computation has finished analyzing the data, the results can be accessed in the Download table.

There, you can download the archive containing the Excel (.xlsx) files. These files provide information about the non-exceedance probabilities of given workability conditions and detailed extended durations (durations of the operation + dwell time) of your operation, as a whole, and step by step.

The Workability table gives you the workability threshold (in %) for each environment and activity. It also provides the estimated duration of the operation (including contingency time), the number of repetitions of each activity, and the duration of each activity.

The Non-exceedance probability table gives you the non-exceedance probabilities (in %) for each combination of environment and workability condition, for each activity.

Finally, the Extended durations table provides detailed information about the extended durations (in hours) of your operation, as a whole, and step by step. It includes the duration of non-operation caused by meteorological and oceanic conditions.

Result from metocean analytics tool

Future of weather downtime estimation

How to mitigate the impact and save millions.

Thanks to advancements in weather forecasting technology and the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms the future looks promising.

Traditionally, offshore operators have relied on historical data and experience to estimate weather-related downtime. However, with the increasing availability of real-time weather data and the development of more sophisticated forecasting models, it is now possible to predict weather conditions more accurately.

With continued advancements in weather forecasting technology and the use of AI and ML algorithms to predict weather-related downtime, estimations should always increase in accuracy. These tools can help offshore operators improve safety, reduce costs, and increase efficiency during their operations.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Advanced weather downtime tool can significantly improve the planning and decision-making process for marine operations by providing accurate and reliable weather-related dwell time estimates. With this tool, marine contractors and offshore operators can optimize their planning and scheduling to minimize the impact of weather-related disruptions and reduce downtime. By taking into account the probability of weather-related delays or interruptions, marine operations can be conducted more efficiently and cost-effectively. The use of this simulation-based tool can ultimately lead to increased safety, improved productivity, and reduced operational expenses.

Frequently Asked Questions About the advanced weather downtime feature

Estimations are critical for offshore operations as they provide the basis for decision-making related to various activities such as project planning, cost estimation, risk assessment, and resource allocation. Accurate estimations of parameters such as weather conditions, sea state, and equipment performance are essential for ensuring the safety, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of offshore operations.

Weather conditions such as strong winds, high waves, and severe storms can cause delays, damage to equipment, and even endanger the crew. These adverse weather conditions can result in downtime, which is very expensive for offshore projects. Therefore, it is essential for offshore operators to carefully monitor weather forecasts, use reliable metocean data, and take necessary precautions to ensure the safety of their personnel and the success of their offshore projects.

The advanced weather downtime tool is a sophisticated software program designed to help offshore operators and marine contractors anticipate and plan for weather-related downtime during offshore operations. It works by analyzing historical weather data over 40 years and simulating the weather conditions for a given time and location to predict the likelihood of weather-related delays or interruptions. Based on these simulations, the tool estimates the extended duration of marine operations, accounting for weather downtime.

The Environments table is a table that defines limiting environments, such as metocean parameters with associated limits, for the advanced weather downtime feature. It is important to use the table correctly as it allows the program to understand which metocean parameter is required. The program interprets the cells containing specific keywords, such as “wave,” to determine which metocean parameter is needed.

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